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| Goodness-of-fit Comparison of Prediction Models for Aerobic Bacterial Count and Shelf Life Prediction of Pasteurized Braised Chicken |
| CHANG Siang, LIU Yi, SHAO Lele, HUI Teng, DAI Ruitong* |
| College of Food Science and Nutritional Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China |
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Abstract In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of different prediction models for the aerobic bacterial count in pasteurized braised chicken stored at 4, 15 and 25 ℃, three primary models, the modified Gompertz, modified Logistic and Baranyi models, were applied to fit the change of aerobic bacterial count, and the secondary models, Belehradck and Arrhenius models, were used to construct the relationship between the parameter eigenvalues and temperature. The goodness-offit of the models were evaluated by comparing the parameter eigenvalues and the evaluation indexes such as correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a predictive model for the shelf life of pasteurized braised chicken was established. Results showed that the parameter eigenvalues fitted with the modified Logistic model were closest to the measured values, and the model exhibited the best goodness-of-fit. The Arrhenius model fitted best with a R2 above 0.97 between the secondary models. It was found that the bias and accuracy factor of the modified Logistic model and the absolute residual values of the Arrhenius model were both at acceptable levels. On the basis of the microbial growth prediction models, the predictive model for the shelf life of pasteurized braised chicken was established and was verified. The relative errors between the predicted and observed values were within ± 10%, which indicated that the predictive model was reliable for the shelf life of pasteurized braised chicken stored at a temperature ranging from 4 to 25 ℃.
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2019, Vol. 33 
